Earthquake in German Finance – Banking Insider

The Annual General Meeting of Deutsche Bank AG, which took place on the 20th May 2015, shook up the top Management. Angry shareholders have appointed the CO-CEOs Anshu Jain and Jürgen Fitschen as the main responsible of the Bank’s underperformance. In the past years, the bank has suffered plunges in profitability largely due to the vast amount of money expensed in fines and litigation after the mortgage crisis, and linked to Libor and Forex manipulations. During the meeting, Anshu Jain, a former trader and investment banker, emerged as the man who was going to be in charge of the new restructuring plan. The main driver of the plan was a strong cost-cutting campaign, which could boost profitability in all areas of business. In the last three years, Deutsche Bank’s stock has been one of the worst performing in the Banking sector. The plan, indeed, which is supposed to add billions to the bottom line, is very ambitious.

Few weeks later, yesterday, probably pushed by the board and the unhappy shareholders, the two CO-CEOs handed in their resignation note. Anshu Jain will be replaced by John Cryan, member from the supervisory board and former CFO of UBS, most likely at the end of June, while Jürgen Fitschen will probably step down after the next general meeting. The dual Management system is poised to end in one year. After the news, Deutsche Bank’s shares are rallying up, showing how investors are more confident on the classic single CEO management, and more reliant on the figure of the new CEO John Cryan. He will have a heavy burden to carry forward. Will he be able to implement the new restructuring plan and lead one of the most important European Bank to profitability again? Time will tell us.

Peer Analysis 8YR

Peer Analysis 30M

Deutsche Bank

By:

Tancredi Viale @TanViale

TMT Consolidation – M&A Specialist

On the 26th of May, news reported that Time Warner Cable will be bought by Charter Communications for $55bn or $195 a share.  After the drop out of Comcast from the acquisition, Time Warner Cable have been approached  by Charter Communications, which is the third largest cable television provider. The deal shows how consolidation is becoming increasingly important in the Media Industry. The new giant will have to pass by the difficult waters of regulators, which have previously led the Comcast-TWC deal to a stalemate, and further to the drop out of Comcast. TWC’s share soared after the news considering the premium Charter is willing to pay to seal the deal. In Merger Arbitrage, normally the target company’s shares soar following the news, and adjust to the price proposed by the acquiror, while the acquiror’s shares tend to decline.

Nowadays, in TMT, the bigger the better.

Time Warner Cable

Charter Communications

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Tancredi Viale

On the verge of a collapse? – Weekly Market Update

Today, Greece was supposed to pay back $335m to IMF. Unfortunately, due to apparent impasses in the discussions between Greece and creditors, the repayment had to be postponed to the end of the month. Only Zambia in the 80s postponed an IMF payment. Tsipras said that it will be attached to other three tranches, totaling approximately €1.6bn. The stalemate is caused by disagreement on the reforms to be backed to the financing line. Alexis Tsipras cannot disrupt his political line to seal the deal. Syriza, his political party, is looking grudgingly at its leader, scared that he could accept unfavorable conditions to secure the loan, which would undermine the party’s coherence with electorate. Markets are nervous in this moment, with tornados taking place in the bond market. ECB’s President, Mario Draghi warned about volatility yet to come.

Today, another important data will be the job report in USA. Job Market is a very important metrics for the definition of Monetary policies in US. The data will be published in early afternoon.

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Tancredi Viale